Tulelake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

762
FXUS66 KMFR 170943
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
243 AM PDT Sun May 17 2026

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty afternoon/evening winds are expected today, strongest east
  of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley (with gusts of 30-35
  mph).

* Brief, localized frost is possible Monday morning, in some west
  side valleys in Oregon. Highest chances (30%) are in the
  southern Illinois and Applegate valleys.

* Temperatures trend warmer Monday through late in the week as
  high pressure builds in and remains over the area. Breezy
  to gusty afternoon winds are likely each day.

An upper trough over the area will bring showers
this morning. Slight chances (10-20%) for light precipitation are
expected along the coast, across the Rogue-Umpqua divide and into
the Cascades with higher chances (30-50%) across eastern Lake
County early this morning. As this trough shifts southeast expect
dry but windy conditions to develop late this morning and this
afternoon. Gusty northerly winds are expected across the area,
with highest winds (gusting to 30-35 mph) east of the Cascades,
over the mountains and into the Shasta Valley.

Monday through Wednesday, an upper ridge centered offshore will
nudge into the region bringing a  a warming trend. However,
Monday will start out chilly with cooler than normal temperatures.
Morning lows may briefly dip into the mid 30s (20-30% chance) for
portions of the southern Illinois Valley and Applegate Valley.
However, this is likely to be localized and brief and the risk for
frost is limited. Inland areas will see breezy winds in the
afternoons/evenings. Gusty afternoon winds are also likely at the
coast and breezy to gusty winds are expected across the coastal
mountains and western Siskiyou County mountains overnight as well
as during the day.

High pressure remains in place Thursday and Friday. Winds will
continue to be breezy to gusty in the afternoons and evenings as
well as over the coastal mountains and western Siskiyou County
mountains overnight. A weak upper level disturbance moving down
the eastern side of the ridge and into the area on Thursday, may
result in a slight up tick in afternoon/evening winds but expect
continued dry weather. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to be
well above normal during this period with highs 8 to 12 degrees
above normal across inland areas (generally in the upper 70s to
mid 85s across most inland valleys).

The upper ridge flattens on Saturday but ensembles and guidance
continue to show continued dry and very warm weather across the
area. The National Blend of Models indicates a 20-30% chance for
high temperatures to reach 90 in the Rogue, Illinois, Applegate
and Shasta valleys.


&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions prevail across the region
with gusty northwest to north winds. Scattered showers persist from
the Rogue-Umpqua Divide north and westward. Overall, VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period, including along the coast and
over the coastal waters. Winds will generally trend lower tonight,
but a potent shortwave moving through the region tonight will
maintain breezy north winds. This shortwave will bring a round light
showers to the Coast and Umpqua Basin, with some light snow to areas
east of the Cascades. Freezing levels will lower to around 3500 ft
by the morning.

Stronger north to northeast winds are expected to develop area wide
Sunday morning and persist through the afternoon, with gusts peaking
around 25-30 kt during the afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Sunday, May 17, 2026...Steep seas
are continuing for areas south of Cape Blanco this morning due to a
mix of northwest swell and wind seas. North winds will strengthen
this afternoon and persist on  Monday. This will result in steep to
very steep seas across the waters, with the strongest winds and
highest seas south of Cape Blanco. Initially, today, steep to
very steep seas will be due to a mix of northwest swell and wind
seas, then seas will transition, becoming dominated by short
period wind seas tonight and Monday morning. Another northwest
swell arrives Monday afternoon and night, resulting in mixed seas
again.

Steep to very steep seas will persist through the week as north
winds strengthen and increase wind seas. Through this stretch, winds
and waves will peak each afternoon and evening with very steep seas
likely for areas south of Cape Blanco and generally steep seas north
of Cape Blanco. Ensemble models indicate winds will strengthen
Wednesday into Thursday with a potential (50-70% chance) for gales
across portions of the southern waters (especially from around Gold
Beach south).



&&

.PREV EXTENDED RANGE DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM PDT Sat May 16
2026/

The models become more progressive towards the tail end of the
weekend and there are some hints of some wetter weather on
Memorial Day. It looks like 30% of the ensemble members are
pushing a cold front through the region with some wetting rain. So
definitely hints of rain of a more progressive pattern for the
the last week of May.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ356-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
     Monday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$